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With 12 days to go before the election,Charlie Crist’scampaign unleashed a “seven-figure” TV ad buy that hits Gov.Ron DeSantison the higher cost of everything.
“Getting by” will start rotating in media markets throughout the state to boost the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, who is currently underwater in the polls in his effort to unseat DeSantis.
This ad does not mention that another four years of DeSantis will likely roll back abortion rights further — a key message of the Crist campaign. Instead, the spot is aimed at pocketbooks and wallets, arguing the DeSantis administration is costing Floridians.
“Whether you’re working in a factory, or an office or fixing cars, Ron DeSantis is making it harder to get by,” Crist says, looking casual, clad in blue jeans and a chamois shirt.
There’s a drumbeat in the background as Crist strolls the floor of an auto repair shop. But then, the 15-second ad quickly cuts to a slow-motion DeSantis shaking his head, frowning, and silently moving his mouth as Crist continues to speak.
“He hiked sales taxes by a billion and said skyrocketing insurance costs weren’t his problem,” Crist says as the camera shot rests on a slightly blurred DeSantis in a suit jacket and tie for a full seven seconds.
“Well,” Crist says, pausing slightly as the background music starts to get louder, “it’s a problem for you.”
To back the sales tax assertion, the ad cites a reportpublished in the Orlando Sentinelon April 20, 2021 — which actually came from the News Service of Florida — regarding House Bill 50, a measure that increased online sales taxes.
The ad has echoes of thesole gubernatorial debateearlier this week wherein Crist blamed the skyrocketing cost of housing, gas and food on a Governor “who has taken his eye off the ball.”
“We have inflation in Florida that’s unique to any other state,” Crist said in the debate. That triggered a sharp retort from DeSantis that Crist voted with President Joe Biden “100% of the time,” for policies that caused the rise in prices.
The Crist campaign reported a surge in fundraising — $500,000 — following the debate, so presumably the campaign will be advertising more.
This ad does not offer any specific instance that DeSantis said skyrocketing insurance costs weren’t his problem — he has called for a second Special Session on it.
Still, Crist wraps up the ad, back in the auto repair shop, as the drumbeat gets louder and ends with a slight cheer of “Hey” in the background.
“DeSantis won’t fix it,” Crist says. “I will.”
The post New Charlie Crist TV ad blames Ron DeSantis for skyrocketing costs appeared first on Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
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Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Since his debate against Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday, Charlie Crist has raised more than half a million dollars, according to the Democrat’s campaign.
The campaign claims momentum is in Crist’s favor after a week raking in more than $500,000. In the day immediately after the debate, the campaign raised $225,000, the campaign’s second-best digital fundraising day ever.
Crist drew donations from nearly 12,000 donors, nearly half of whom were first-time donors.
The campaign also says the momentum shift played out online, where it generated more than 12.6 million impressions on social media.
“Monday’s debate changed the game — and Floridians are fired up,” said Crist’s communications director, Samantha Ramirez. “Floridians saw Charlie and Ron side by side, and the choice couldn’t be more clear: a Governor who doesn’t even want the job, or a public servant who will fight every day to protect our freedom to choose and to live a good life in the Sunshine State.”
After team Crist announced it had raised $200,000 from almost 7,000 donors the day after the debate, the campaign called it a sign supporters view as a revitalization of his bid while the candidate remains down in the polls.
“Charlie Crist delivered a game-changing debate performance,” said Crist Campaign Manager Sydney Throop.
Proportionally, an extra $500,000 opens outreach opportunities for Crist in the final two weeks of the campaign. But it remains to be seen if viral moments from the campaign, most notably a clip of Crist asking if DeSantis will serve out a four-year term if re-elected and receiving no answer, will make a difference at the polling booth.
It’s also possible DeSantis, who has grown a national profile and fueled speculation he will run for President, sees a similar burst in fundraising. His campaign did send an email to supporters pre-debate saying his fundraising remained $22,000 “short” of its target.
However, DeSantis has already broken gubernatorial fundraising records, and his campaign certainly isn’t starved for cash.
Evening Reads
—“How Republicans’ ground operation with Hispanics could deliver Miami-Dade for Ron DeSantis” via Bianca Padró Ocasio and Ana Ceballos of the Miami Herald
—“FEMA, DeSantis reach deal to speed up debris removal in areas hard-hit by Ian” via Gray Rohrer of Florida Politics
—“Chamber poll: DeSantis over Charlie Crist by double-digits” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—“Gavin Newsom vs. DeSantis is our inevitable culture war” via Ross Douthat of The New York Times
—“The Impeachment of Joe Biden” via Barton Gellman of The Atlantic
—“‘My son has never voted’: Mom rejects Marco Rubio’s claim that politics motivated Hialeah attack” via Sarah Blaskey and Nicholas Nehamas of the Miami Herald
—“Rubio says second arrest for beating of canvasser with bigoted history supports claims of political motive” via Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics
—“Prosecutors in ‘ghost’ candidate case resist political consultant’s removal request” via Jeff Weiner of the Orlando Sentinel
—“In prison, Parkland killer may lose what he appeared to prize most: fame” via Rafael Olmeda of the South Florida Sun Sentinel
—“‘All hands on deck’: Top Senate Dems, Bakari Sellers, hit the trail for Loranne Ausley” via Renzo Downey of Florida Politics
—“Is being Mayor of St. Petersburg, Florida’s fifth-largest city, a remote job?” via Colleen Wright of the Tampa Bay Times
—“As Artemis I launch nears, more Orion capsules are on horizon” via Richard Tribou of the Orlando Sentinel
Quote of the Day
“This race here is going to take the temperature of what happens in November, and I believe if we can win here, then we can shock the world.”
— Bakari Sellers, on Senate District 3 as a bellwether race.
Bill Day’s Latest
Breakthrough Insights
The post Last Call for 10.26.22 — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics appeared first on Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
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Republican House candidate Susan Plasencia changed her voter registration this year to a new home as she campaigns in House District 37. She voted from that new address during the August Republican Primary.
But the east Orlando home, a three-bedroom house just off Colonial Boulevard, also serves as the address to four other registered voters.
Florida Politics obtained photographs taken by a private investigator suggesting Plasencia still lives at a prior address, one where her mother still maintains a homestead. There’s no indication in the private report that Plasencia regularly steps foot near the home where she is now registered to vote.
Plasencia, an Orlando Republican, won the Republican nomination in HD 37 in August. She now faces state Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, an Orlando Democrat seeking a fourth term in the House.
Plasencia, after a previous version of the story was published, said she in fact lives at the same address where she is registered, but has obligations at the former home where her mother still lives.
“My voter registration and where I reside are the same address. Earlier this year, I moved residences. In doing so I renounced my homestead exemption at my former residence and updated my address with the appropriate state and local entities,” Plasencia said in an email.
“My life is very busy with work, campaigning and most importantly, caring for my mother, who is in hospice at her home. She requires 24-hour care and I cover the night shift. The fact that my opponent hired someone to stalk me during this difficult time for my family is both disrespectful and creepy. Anyone who cares for Alzheimer’s patients knows the demands they require.”
Florida Politics did not receive the investigative report from Smith or his campaign.
It is not uncommon for political candidates to move to new political jurisdictions in order to run for office. With a new House map approved this year as part of a once-a-decade redistricting process, at least seven House incumbents seeking re-election filed in districts requiring them to move.
Plasencia was previously registered to vote at a home on Belles Lane that she and mother Norma Plasencia purchased in 2016. That home on the new House map sits in House District 35, where GOP state Rep. Fred Hawkins is seeking re-election.
Property records still list Susan Plasencia as a partial owner for the Belles Lane home, though she requested in February of 2021 that her name be taken off a homestead exemption. An exemption remains in her mother’s name.
The candidate shifted her voter registration to a new property on Sue Ann Street as of March 2, according to a voter audit report provided by the Orange County Supervisor of Elections. That’s a property owned since 2004 by Hector Hernandez, an Orlando Republican also registered to vote from the address.
In addition to Placensia and Hernandez, three other adults are registered to vote from the location. It notably is a bipartisan household, home to Democrats Ana Gonzalez, Xavier Hernandez and David Gonzalez Perez. And indeed, Plasencia in political advertisements has expressed a commitment to working across the aisle.
But political disagreements aren’t the most significant threat to quality of life in the home. Property records show the property hosts in a three-bedroom, one-bathroom house with just 1,060 square feet of living area on a single floor.
That’s considerably smaller than Plasencia’s prior living space. The house still serving as her mother’s home address has 2,332 square feet of living space, and has two bathrooms.
Discomfort alone may not prove Plasencia lives somewhere other than where she’s registered to vote. But findings of a private investigator raise further questions about her residency.
Documents obtained by Florida Politics show the investigator conducted surveillance on the Sue Ann Street property, where Plasencia is registered to vote, from mid-August to late September. Of note, another woman who is not registered to vote at the location was seen regularly coming and going from the location with her own child. That’s potentially two more people living inside or at least visiting the crowded house. But the investigator never saw Plasencia or her vehicle at the home.
Meanwhile, he reported seeing Plasencia and red Ford Fusion registered to the candidate at the Belles Lane address where she was previously registered.
The investigator documented Plasencia leaving that home for a round trip to Staples on Aug. 25, then staying in the home the rest of the day. On Sept. 4, Plasencia’s car was parked in front of that home as early at 7:45 a.m. The investigator also reported the car was in the driveway after 3 a.m. on the mornings of Sept. 14, 15, 17, 19, 20, 21 and 22.
All those dates were after Plasencia had voted by mail in the Republican Primary election while registered as a voter in HD 37 at the Sue Ann Street address.
Discrepancy in her home address doesn’t necessarily raise issues about Plasencia’s candidacy. The Florida Constitution only requires candidates for the House to be residents of their districts at the point of their election. That means Plasencia only needs to be a resident of HD 37 by midnight of the General Election on Nov. 8 in order to take office should she win.
But Florida’s voting laws could create a greater headache for the candidate. Voting statutes state: “A person is not permitted to vote in any election precinct or district other than the one in which the person has his or her legal residence and in which the person is registered.” To change addresses requires voters to affirm through a change of legal residence. Violating the law constitutes a third-degree felony.
As for what establishes legal residency, that’s not black and white in statute. Residency can be verified by what is reflected on a driver’s license, tax receipts, bank accounts, homestead exemptions, evidence of purchase or rental of a new property, or relocation of personal effects, according to a candidate handbook provided by the state. But it also says the ultimate determination of residency must be made by the courts.
PI report 1 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd
PI 2 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd
The post Surveillance photos suggest Susan Plasencia doesn’t live where she’s registered to vote appeared first on Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
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A panel of conservative foreign policy experts will share the stage in Tampa this weekend, and will bring Republican congressional candidates in two competitive Florida races on stage as part of the discussion.
POLARIS National Security founder Morgan Ortagus, a former State Department spokesperson under Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, organized the event, which will take place on Oct. 29 at 4 p.m.
Anna Paulina Luna and Laurel Lee, Republican nominees, respectively, in Florida’s 13th and 15th Congressional Districts, will share the stage alongside House Republican Study Committee Chair Jim Banks, former acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf and former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi.
But Ortagus, who will moderate, said the event should not be considered a campaign rally. Rather, it will be an academic discussion of challenges facing the United States around the globe. That said, expect a pointed assessment of geopolitics in the two years since President Joe Biden took office.
“I know many of us look at what is happening around the world and see a period of failed American leadership that has led to chaos in Europe and could potentially lead to chaos in Asia as well,” she said.
Ortagus pointed to recent assessments by Secretary of State Antony Blinken that China may engage into military aggression against Taiwan much sooner than anticipated. Meanwhile, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine appears on the verge of becoming nuclear.
“As you and I are talking, we are literally looking at and facing the possibility of nuclear weapons being used in Europe,” Ortagus said. “We know we have been in a period of geostrategic competition, or more accurately, a great power competition, between the U.S., Russia and China.”
This event will touch on the fentanyl pipeline out of China, negotiations around a nuclear treaty with Iran, the recent woman uprising in the same theocratic nation, Israeli security and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. With a stop in Florida, Ortagus said the topics of relations with Cuba and Venezuela will also be on the docket.
The Saturday event marks a fifth and final stop for the “America the Great” tour. It’s a bit of a homecoming for Ortagus, an Auburndale native who graduated from Regent High School in 2000. Her first political job was working for former U.S. Rep. Adam Putnam, a Polk County Republican, during his 2004 campaign. She also interned with News Channel 8.
Ortagus’ organization has held similar events with Pennsylvania Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters and North Carolina Senate candidate Ted Budd, all Republicans engaged in frontline contests themselves. Still, Ortagus may be presenting a point of view but invites guests from all political leanings.
“It’s academic in nature, and it speaks really well to the importance that we have done this with high-profile candidates in the country, who take time out of busy schedules to sit down and talk national security for an hour.”
The post Laurel Lee, Anna Paulina Luna to participate in national security panel appeared first on Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
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Charlie Crist, Florida’s Democratic nominee for Governor, says a strong debate performance has already produced material gains for his campaign.
Crist’s campaign announced it raised $200,000 from almost 7,000 donors, a sign supporters view as a revitalization of his bid while the candidate remains down in the polls.
“Charlie Crist delivered a game-changing debate performance,” said Crist campaign manager Sydney Throop.
“He held Ron DeSantis accountable for his disgusting attacks on a woman’s right to choose and exposed Ron for the coward he is for dodging multiple questions on how long he even would stay in office if re-elected. Charlie proved DeSantis can’t answer for his record of making Florida the most unaffordable state, and thousands across Florida and our nation agree.”
DeSantis, an incumbent holding significant leads both in polls and in financial resources, faced Crist on Monday, Oct. 24, for the only scheduled debate between candidates.
WFLA carried the debate online, and an online poll by the station shows 61% of survey participants believe Crist won the debate.
The campaign also said its own tracking of social media shows the Democrat has more than 3.5 million moreTwittersions on Twitter.
That said, the six-figure sum, while a substantial injection of cash, will hardly close a dollar advantage enjoyed by the Governor.
DeSantis’ official candidate account holds $8.8 million in cash on hand as of Oct. 14, while Crist’s campaign reported just under $773,000.
Meanwhile, the outside committee Friends of Ron DeSantis as of the same date had almost $89 million in the bank as of the same date. The respective Friends of Charlie Crist had about $1.4 million available to spend, by comparison.
Proportionally, an extra $200,000 will open outreach opportunities for Crist in the final two weeks of the campaign. And it remains to be seen if viral moments from the campaign, most notably a clip of Crist asking if DeSantis will serve out a four-year term if re-election and receiving no answer, will continue to result in more fundraising.
But it’s also possible DeSantis, who has grown a national profile and fueled speculation he will run for President, sees a similar burst in fundraising. His campaign did send an email to supporters pre-debate saying his fundraising remained $22,000 short of its target.
The post Charlie Crist raises $200K off ‘game-changing’ debate performance appeared first on Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
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When it comes to women’s reproductive rights and whether to deport so-called Dreamers, Miami-Dade County voters hold nuanced opinions regardless of political affiliation, new polling data shows.
South Florida consulting firm Public Communications Group surveyed 6,656 registered Miami-Dade voters online in English and Spanish Oct. 12-21. The survey had a 2% margin of error.
Pollsters asked respondents to share their thoughts on abortion and whether they support naturalization for immigrants who were illegally brought to the United States as children but have essentially grown up as Americans — a group known widely as Dreamers.
The firm separated results by party affiliation. The largest group represented, Republicans, comprised 2,798 respondents. Democrats followed with 2,111 respondents, while independent, no-party respondents rounded the survey out with 1,747 people polled.
“On abortion, no group supports an outright ban, and a plurality believe there should be no restrictions whatsoever,” said Democratic consultant Evan Ross, the firm’s CEO.
“On the issue of illegal immigrants brought to the United States as children, often referred to as Dreamers, support is strong for a pathway to citizenship, with Republicans only slightly preferring legal status.”
Abortion
GOP respondents in Miami-Dade held the most hardline views on both issues. But they still expressed some flexibility.
Just over half — 50.02% — said they support the Supreme Court’s decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade, which kicked back down to states jurisdiction over abortion law.
However, only 8% back a full ban on abortion with no exceptions. The largest share, 40%, believe the practice should only be legal in cases of rape, incest or when the life of the mother is at risk.
Nineteen percent said abortion should only be legal in the first trimester, while 9.5% held that abortion should be permitted “until the point of viability,” after which it should be allowed only to save the mother.
Notably, 15% said a woman should be able to terminate her pregnancy “at any time for any reason,” while 8% denied having an opinion on the matter.
Only 8% of Miami-Dade Republicans back a full ban on abortion with no exceptions. Image via Public Communications Group.
Meanwhile, Democrats overwhelmingly opposed the SCOTUS ruling on Roe, with 87.5% saying they believed the decision was wrong.
Sixty-three percent of Democrats in Miami-Dade believe there should be no restrictions on a woman’s right to choose whether to go through with a pregnancy, while 12.6% said abortion should be legal until the point of viability and 11% said it should only be legal during the first trimester.
Nine percent believe abortion should only be legal in cases of rape, incest or to save the mother’s life, and just 1% backed a full abortion ban. About 3.5% said they didn’t have an opinion one way or the other.
Sixty-three percent of Democrats in Miami-Dade believe there should be no restrictions on a woman’s right to choose. Image via Public Communications Group.
Independent voters also largely disagreed with Roe’s overturning at a more than two-to-one ratio, with 59.5% of respondents saying they did not support the decision compared to 24% who did.
Just 3% believe in an outright ban, while 39% said there should be no restrictions and 23% backed abortion only in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother.
Twelve percent of independents back the right to abortion only until the end of the first trimester, and 9% denied having thoughts on the issue.
Independent voters disagreed with the overturning of Roe v. Wade by a more than two-to-one ratio. Image via Public Communications Group.
Dreamers
There are some 800,000 young people in the U.S. protected from deportation under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which former President Barack Obama created by executive order in 2012 after the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act did not pass in Congress several times.
That failed legislation became the namesake for the people protected under DACA, which faced dissolution under Obama’s successor, Donald Trump, until an executive order by President Joe Biden preserved it.
But the program’s future remains uncertain. On Oct. 5, a federal appeals court determined Obama’s 2012 executive order violates immigration statutes but deferred a final rule on the matter to a district court.
Less than 16% of Miami-Dade Republicans want to deport Dreamers outright. The rest are roughly split on whether to allow paths to citizenship or legal status.
Nearly 40% of Republicans said Dreamers shouldn’t be permitted to become citizens but should have an opportunity to obtain legal status. Thirty-eight percent said a pathway to citizenship should be allowed.
Less than 16% of Miami-Dade Republicans want to deport Dreamers outright. Image via Public Communications Group.
Democrats in Miami-Dade broadly supported bringing DACA recipients more into the American fold. Nearly 80% said there should be a path to citizenship, while another 14% said a path to legal status is more appropriate.
Just 3% said Dreamers should be deported to their country of origin. Roughly the same share denied having an opinion on the subject.
Overall, 94% of Democrats in Miami-Dade support paths to citizenship or legal status for Dreamers. Image via Public Communications Group.
The preponderance of independent respondents in Miami-Dade feel similarly. Nearly 59% support a pathway to citizenship, while 27% favor a route to legal status.
Less than 8% think Dreamers should be deported back to their country of birth. Six percent said they had no opinion.
Twice as many independent voters in Miami-Dade prefer a path to citizenship for Dreamers than a path to legal status. Image via Public Communications Group.
Details
Of the Republicans who responded to the poll, 47% were 55 or older, 51% were of Cuban descent, 27% identified as non-Cuban Hispanic or Latino and of the 75% who said they were Christian, two-thirds were Catholic. Other than 3.5% of Republican respondents who said they were Jewish, no other religious group had 1% or greater representation in the poll.
Democrats were similarly represented age-wise, with 46% of respondents being 55 or older. Twenty-eight percent said they were non-Cuban Hispanic or Latino compared to 21% of Cuban descent, 25% non-Hispanic White and 20% Black or African American.
While more Democratic respondents cited Christianity as their faith — including 30% who said they are Catholic and 24.5% who said they belonged to another form of Christian faith — 33% of Democrats polled said they were irreligious. Roughly 5.6% said they were Jewish, while 6.6% said they adhered to another faith.
Independent voters skewed younger, with just 42.5% aged 55 or older. Thirty-six percent were non-Cuban Hispanic or Latino, 27% were of Cuban descent, 21.6% were non-Hispanic White, 7.5% were Black or African American and 1.2% were Asian.
In terms of religion, 35% were Catholic, while 22% said they believed in another form of Christianity. Thirty-one percent were irreligious, while 3.5% were Jewish and nearly 9% held other religious beliefs.
Early voting in Miami-Dade is now underway. Election Day is Nov. 8.
The post Poll: Miami-Dade voters overwhelmingly oppose full abortion ban, deporting Dreamers appeared first on Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
For Pensacola owners, trees are an important part of any landscape, but they also need to be maintained and trimmed properly to avoid becoming a hazard.
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Tree Services in Pensacola is the perfect solution for all your tree maintenance needs. We have experienced professionals who will take care of your trees quickly and safely.
It wasn’t always clear throughout Monday night’s Florida gubernatorial debate whether we were watching an exchange of ideas or a pep rally.
Note to future planners: It’s time to ditch the live, partisan audience at these encounters.
However, when the one-hour exchange between Democratic challenger U.S. Charlie Crist and incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis ended, we had a clear dividing line from where the two men stood. And so did the statewide audience.
The question is, did it convince any undecided voters one way or the other?
Crist attacked DeSantis on multiple fronts, most notably abortion rights. He kept turning every question back to his fundamental point that women should control their bodies. Crist was composed and not combative, forceful, and at times persuasive.
But so was DeSantis.
The Governor defended his stance about limiting what young school children can be taught about sex and gender. He stood by his decision to keep schools open despite medical advice to the contrary during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
So who won probably depended most on who you supported going into the night. And that brings us back to the pep rally feel about the debate.
Despite what I might personally agree with, I thought both men made their points persuasively. However, we often lost both candidates’ points when supporters on both sides cheered over their words, which must stop. This isn’t a TV show, folks. It’s a serious exchange of ideas between two opposing sides that, for a change, actually seemed to have some substance as these things go.
Crist, a former Governor of Florida, repeatedly referred to DeSantis as Ron. He questioned several times whether DeSantis would commit to serving a full four-year term if elected, but never got a direct answer. The inference was clear: the 2022 gubernatorial race, Crist implied, is merely a staging ground for DeSantis to mount a campaign for President in two years.
That could well be the headline of this debate.
But with DeSantis well ahead in the polls, and Floridians appearing satisfied with his performance, was that enough for Crist to move the needle?
So far, polls show it’s not.
Crist attacked the 15-week abortion ban DeSantis signed, but that issue doesn’t seem enough to carry him over the goal line. He didn’t seem to land enough points on the economy to make Floridians say Tuesday morning that it was their main takeaway from this debate.
Crist attacked one of the big complaints about DeSantis.
“You don’t have the temperament to be kind and decent to people who don’t look like you, act like you, or contribute to you,” he said.
The studio crowd went wild.
But did it move the needle for the challenger?
We won’t know that for sure until Election Day, but it’s doubtful DeSantis did anything in this debate to hurt his reelection chances. And, seriously, wasn’t that was this exercise was all about?
The post Joe Henderson: Both gubernatorial candidates made their points, but did it matter? appeared first on Florida Politics - Campaigns & Elections. Lobbying & Government..
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